Mayflower Village, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

746
FXUS66 KLOX 171002
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
302 AM PDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...17/216 AM.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through Friday with a chance
of light rain or drizzle. Temperatures will remain well below
normal. Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday through the
middle of next week but still 3 to 6 degrees below normal across
the coast and valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...17/245 AM.

A 561 dam upper low is just to the west of LAX. It along with
strong onshore flow is gently lifting a very deep marine layer
and producing a solid layer of clouds over all of SBA/VTA/LA
counties save for the the high peaks and the Antelope Vly. There
is enough instability and lift to bring a 20 to 30 percent chc of
rain to these areas today with the greatest chc over the mtns.
Rainfall amounts, if any, will not amount to anymore than a tenth
of an inch and that might be generous. The strong onshore push
will bring advisory level gusts to the Antelope Vly and its
western foothills through this evening with a little lull in the
morning. Max temps will remain well below normal even though most
areas well see some warming from ydy`s chilly readings.

The upper low swinging out of Idaho is now forecast to swing
further to the east which will reduce the overnight rain threat
which will not be confined to LA county and eastern VTA county.

Rain chcs quickly diminish Friday morning with the only chc over
the eastern San Gabriels. Dry northerly flow will set up over the
areas and hgts will rise to 568 dam up from this afternoon`s 562
dam value. The clouds will diminish and skies should be mostly
sunny by afternoon. The rising hgts, weaker onshore flow and extra
sunshine will all mix together to bring a 2 to 4 locally 5 to 6
degree boost in temps everywhere except for the beaches. Despite
the warming most max temps will come in 5 to 10 degrees blo
normal.

Weak ridging and weak offshore flow arrive Saturday. Latest
guidance suggests that there will be some coastal marine layer
clouds, but would not be surprised if there were none as there
might not be enough time for the marine inversion to set up. 576
dam hgts plus the weak offshore flow and sunny skies will bring 2
to 4 degrees of warming across most of SLO/SBA counties and the
csts of LA/VTA county. The vlys and interior of LA/VTA county will
see 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of warming. Max temps will trend to
normal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...17/302 AM.

Good agreement with the deterministic and ensemble mdls for the
extended fcst. A series of trofs will move through the PACNW and
will bring weak, but dry, cyclonic flow over the Srn CA. Onshore
flow will increase as well and the night through morning low
cloud pattern will return to the coasts and probably the lower
vlys. Skies otherwise will be mostly clear. Moderate to strong
onshore flow in the afternoon will bring gusty winds to the mtns
and Antelope vly. Temperatures will not change too much each day
with a few degrees of warming Sun and Mon followed by a few
degrees of cooling Tue/Wed. Monday will be the warmest day of the
next 7 with plenty of 70s across the csts and vlys except for 60s
at the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0912Z.

At 0915Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 6800 ft deep. The top
of the inversion was at 7800 feet with a temperature of 3 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, high confidence in 12Z TAF package. For coastal/valley
sites, a BKN-OVC050-070 deck is expected through the period with
possible brief periods of SCT conditions.

Gusty southwesterly winds will impact the mountains and deserts
with some LLWS/turbulence issues possible across the desert
foothills.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of
brief periods of SCT conditions through the period. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 10-20% chance of
brief periods of SCT conditions.

&&

.MARINE...17/212 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Saturday
through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For
Monday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox